WHAT’S GOING ON BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN?
A very brief overview
HISTORY
In 1979, the Iranian Shah was overthrown, and Ayatollah Khomeini established a Shiʿite Islamist theocracy in Iran, ending the relatively cooperative relationship between Israel and Iran under the Shah.
The new fundamentalist regime pledged to obliterate the Zionist entity, specifically the Jewish state. Since that time, Iran, under Ayatollah leadership, has pursued a strategy aimed at surrounding Israel with proxies prepared to launch attacks on command. These proxies consist of Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza.
This became recognized as the circle of fire around Israel, serving two primary purposes: (1) to shield Iran from direct conflict with Israel, and (2) to retaliate against Israel if it chose to strike Iran.
Iran had a good reason to fear an Israeli attack, as for the last 40 years, it has been rigorously working to develop a nuclear bomb and join the “club” of nuclear powers and potentially fulfill its consistent promise to destroy the Jewish state.
WHAT CHANGED?
In two words — October 7th. Hamas’ brutal attack against Israel has triggered a domino effect. Hezbollah’s support of Hamas during the war that followed the October 7th attacks resulted in direct confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, during which Israel destroyed much of the organization’s military capabilities and killed many of its top leaders, including Hasan Nasrallah, the highest-ranking commander of the organization.
Israel also played a role in toppling Assad, the Syrian dictator, thereby severing the connection between Iran and Lebanon. The defeat of the brutal terrorist organization Hamas further diminished Iran’s influence.
With its proxies largely dysfunctional and nearly debilitated, and its safety net severely compromised, Iran accelerated its nuclear program development, intending to enrich enough uranium to acquire a nuclear bomb. From the Israeli perspective, however, the dissolution of the ring of fire represented an opportunity to launch a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities without risking significant damage to its home front.
WHAT NOW?
On the night of June 13th, Israel launched a massive attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, and it also targeted top atomic scientists to destroy, or at least hinder Iran’s abilities to reach a nuclear bomb that might put the Jewish state in an existential threat.
Israel launched a massive air and covert operation dubbed Operation Rising Lion: 200 aircraft struck 100 targets, including Natanz, Isfahan, Fordow, Iranian missile bases, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders, and scientists. The Mossad reportedly sabotaged Iran’s air defenses and smuggled weapons into Iran. By June 15, satellite imagery confirmed extensive surface damage at Natanz while underground chambers remained intact.
In retaliation for Israel’s attack on its military installation, Iran launched over 270 reported ballistic missiles, resulting in around 20 actual falls on Israeli soil. These attacks on residential areas led to the deaths of 11 and the injury of more than 300 Israelis. Israeli cities, including Bat Yam and Rehovot, as well as areas in central Israel, experienced severe damage. Following these attacks on residential areas, Israel’s campaign also hit dual-use economic and strategic infrastructure (oil depots, military sites, Tehran’s defense ministry)
While demonstrating its glorious capabilities, exceptional creativity, and courage, Israel faces challenges with military resources — it lacks the necessary equipment to eliminate Iran’s nuclear development facilities. One notable nuclear site is situated 300 feet underground in Fordow. To access this nuclear site fortress, Israel is seeking military assistance from the US.
Although the US aims to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, there’s no indication of American involvement in the ongoing conflict. Many suggest that the US may use Israel’s actions as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Iran, provided Iran avoids the error of attacking US military assets in the region. Should Iran choose that path, President Trump has signaled that the US will respond with full military force.
While it is still too early to determine the direction of this conflict, we might say that once the smoke clears, people in Israel, Iran, and the broader Middle East will awaken to a new reality. Hopefully, it will be a reality in which oppressive regimes with bellicose aspirations do not possess nuclear bombs.
